It was a rough Thursday for basically everything except energy stocks and companies with the word "autonomous" in their pitch decks. Here's what happened.
The $2 Trillion Problem Nobody Can Leave
Morgan Stanley disclosed this week that investors tried to pull nearly 11% of shares from its North Haven Private Income Fund, a roughly $8 billion vehicle that lends to middle-market U.S. companies. The fund honored less than half of those requests, returning about $169 million and capping redemptions at 5% for the quarter. Cliffwater, which manages a $33 billion flagship credit fund, faced an even uglier number: 14% of its assets were subject to redemption requests. It capped payouts at 7%.
These aren't isolated incidents. They're the latest dominoes in a chain reaction that has swept through the roughly $2 trillion private credit sector over the past several weeks. BlackRock limited withdrawals from its $26 billion HLEND fund after requests hit 9.3% of net asset value. Blackstone's BCRED fund saw a similar surge. Blue Owl drew criticism for permanently suspending redemptions on one of its funds. And on Wednesday, JPMorgan quietly marked down the value of some private credit loans it holds as collateral — specifically loans made to software companies — effectively reducing how much the funds that originated those loans can borrow.
The fear is that artificial intelligence is going to eat the software industry's lunch, and since private credit has been a major lender to software companies, specifically for Data Centers, investors are scrambling to reassess their exposure. As Pimco's Christian Stracke put it bluntly on a podcast this week, the issue isn't just confidence — it's underwriting quality itself, and figuring out which managers did their homework and which didn't.
Oil Breaks Through $100 — and the SPR Cavalry Arrives
Brent crude topped $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since 2022, and West Texas Intermediate settled up nearly 10% on the day. The catalyst: Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as leverage against the U.S. and Israel. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply normally passes through that narrow waterway, and it has been effectively shut down since the war began on February 28.
The shipping situation is deteriorating fast. At least three more vessels were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight Wednesday, and a container ship was hit by a projectile about 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, a major port near Dubai. Oman briefly evacuated all vessels from its Mina Al Fahal oil terminal, a facility that exports over a million barrels a day, before allowing limited operations to resume. Since the conflict began, Brent is up more than 36% and WTI roughly 39%.
In response, the IEA announced its largest-ever coordinated emergency stockpile release: 400 million barrels across its 32 member nations, more than doubling the 182 million barrels released after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The U.S. will contribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week, with full delivery expected to take about 120 days. Markets were unimpressed. Oil prices briefly dipped on the news before climbing right back above $90.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 from $66, now modeling 21 days of near-total disruption to Hormuz flows followed by a 30-day gradual recovery. In an upside scenario where disruption lasts a full month, Goldman sees Brent averaging $110 in March and April. If flows remain depressed through the end of March, the bank warned spot prices could exceed their 2008 peak of $147.
Uber's Robotaxi Empire Keeps Expanding
Uber had a busy week on the autonomous vehicle front, announcing two separate partnerships that reinforce its strategy of becoming the platform layer between riders and self-driving cars.
First, Amazon-owned Zoox inked a multiyear deal to put its steering-wheel-free robotaxis on the Uber app in Las Vegas starting this summer, followed by Los Angeles next year. The pod-shaped vehicles — affectionately dubbed "toasters" — have already logged over a million autonomous miles and carried more than 300,000 riders. By year-end, Uber aims to offer driverless rides in 15 cities globally.
Then on Thursday, Uber, Nissan, and UK autonomous driving startup Wayve announced a memorandum of understanding to pilot robotaxis in Tokyo by late 2026. Nissan Leaf EVs will be equipped with Wayve's AI Driver software and offered through Uber's app, with safety operators in the vehicle during the initial phase. Wayve, which raised $1.2 billion in a February Series D at an $8.6 billion valuation, says its system works without high-definition maps — a significant claim if it holds up in Tokyo's notoriously dense and complex streets.
Not to be outdone on the delivery side, Grubhub and drone startup Dexa announced a three-month pilot launching March 18 in Green Brook, New Jersey, the state's first commercial drone food delivery program. Customers within 2.5 miles of a Wonder restaurant location can opt for drone delivery through the Grubhub app at no extra charge, with average delivery times of about four minutes. For context, Wonder acquired Grubhub last year from Just Eat Takeaway for $650 million; roughly 91% less than the $7.3 billion Just Eat paid four years earlier, which remains one of the more spectacular value destructions in recent corporate history.
The Data Corner
The housing picture was, in the words of one economist, "a mixed bag." February housing starts jumped 7.2% month-over-month to 1.49 million, a surprisingly strong number driven almost entirely by a 29% surge in multifamily starts. Single-family starts actually fell 2.8%. Building permits, however, dropped 5.4% to 1.38 million, painting a more pessimistic picture for construction in the months ahead.
On trade, the U.S. deficit shrank sharply to $54.5 billion in January, down $18.4 billion from December. Exports jumped 5.5% to a record $302.1 billion, led by precious metals, computers, and civilian aircraft. Imports edged down 0.7% to $356.6 billion. It's a clean-looking number, but keep in mind: this is January data, and the Strait of Hormuz was still open.
What to Watch
Friday brings the February PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred price gauge, with consensus expecting a 0.3% monthly gain and 2.9% year-over-year on the headline number. Like Wednesday's CPI, this will be the last "clean" inflation read before the Iran-driven oil shock starts showing up in the data. The Fed meets next Wednesday and is expected to hold rates steady, but the real question is how long that stance survives if oil stays above $90. Markets are now pricing a 45% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026. A few weeks ago, that would have sounded crazy…
