If you're looking for a quiet day in markets, this isn't it. A 15-point peace plan for Iran, a full-blown liquidity crisis in private credit, a federal ban on foreign routers, America's dwindling missile supply, a potential $40 billion beauty mega-merger, and Costco coming for Celsius's lunch, all at once. Let's get into it.
U.S. Sends Iran a 15-Point Peace Plan, and It's a Big Ask
The Trump administration delivered a sweeping 15-point peace proposal to Iran through Pakistan on Tuesday, as the war between the two nations entered its fourth week. The plan, promoted by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, calls for a one-month ceasefire during which both sides would negotiate a comprehensive peace deal.
The terms are, to put it mildly, ambitious. Iran would need to dismantle its nuclear program entirely: cease all uranium enrichment, transfer stockpiles to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and decommission key facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Tehran would also be required to stop funding proxy groups across the region and guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows, remains open to international shipping. The plan also addresses Iran's ballistic missile program and while details are sparse it is believed they would belimited to defensive use, per the Xinhua report. In exchange, Washington is offering full sanctions relief, removal of the UN "snapback" mechanism, and support for a civilian nuclear energy project at Bushehr.
Here's where it gets complicated. Iran's parliamentary speaker called the negotiations "fake news," while the Foreign Ministry acknowledged receiving messages from "friendly countries" but insisted no direct talks were taking place, per Al Jazeera. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly offered to host talks, confirming that backchannel efforts are underway, and an Israeli official told NPR that they were already working on a way to host talks in Pakistan later this week. Whether this framework has any real chance of sticking is an open question, but Trump's decision to delay his strike on Iran's power infrastructure by 5 days suggests the White House is at least trying to buy time. Oil markets softened on the news, though analysts caution that the sheer scope of the demands makes a quick resolution unlikely.
America's Rare Earth Problem Is Getting Very Real, Very Fast
Speaking of the Iran war: every missile the U.S. fires is accelerating a supply chain crisis that's been building for years. Reuters reported that the conflict is rapidly draining U.S. stocks of tungsten and other critical minerals embedded in modern weapons systems. The U.S. and Israeli coalition expended roughly 5,197 munitions across 35 weapon types in just the first 96 hours of combat, generating an estimated replacement bill of $10- $16 billion.
The bigger issue isn't the dollar cost, it's the materials. Reports from the South China Morning Post and Reuters, cited by OilPrice.com, indicate the U.S. could have only weeks to months of certain rare-earth inventories left for defense manufacturing. China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth production and about 90% of processing, per Reuters. Yttrium prices alone have surged 60% since November, with some North American processing companies temporarily shutting down due to supply constraints. The Pentagon sought proposals for 13 critical minerals from its Defense Industrial Base Consortium the day before the Iran strikes began, with potential funding of $100 million to $500 million. In other words, the U.S. is fighting a 21st-century war while relying on supply chains that run through the country that is actively helping the enemy. This is obviously not an ideal position to be in.
Private Credit's Liquidity Crunch Is Spreading
Shifting gears to Wall Street, where the $1.8 trillion private credit market is having a very rough month. At this point its pretty obvious investors want out, and the funds are scrambling to stay afloat.
At Cliffwater LLC, the father-and-son team of Stephen and Blake Nesbitt built a modest consulting firm into a private credit giant managing a $33 billion flagship fund. Their strategy was essentially a fund-of-funds approach, investing in other private credit managers rather than making direct loans themselves. But when investors demanded roughly 14% of their shares back, Cliffwater capped redemptions at 7%, the regulatory maximum for its interval fund structure. In a letter to investors obtained by The Wall Street Journal, CEO Stephen Nesbitt pointed to the fund's annualized returns of approximately 9% since inception and nearly zero realized losses. Still, when investors are lining up for 14% of a $33 billion fund, bragging that you underperformed the S&P 500 by 1% isn’t the smartest move.
Apollo Global Management's $15 billion Apollo Debt Solutions BDC faced a similar wave, with redemption requests hitting 11.2% of outstanding shares, well above the fund's 5% quarterly cap. The fund was only able to honor about half of the withdrawal requests. Lastly, Ares Management became the latest domino, capping redemptions at 5% on its $10.7 billion Strategic Income Fund after investors sought to pull 11.6%.
The common thread is growing concern about loan quality, particularly exposure to software companies that could face disruption from advances in artificial intelligence. This doesn't mean the sky is falling, but the era of "private credit only goes up" is getting a reality check.
As a gentle reminder, here are the Private Credit Funds That Gated/Halted Withdrawals:
Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) - November 2025 (halted redemptions); February 18, 2026 (permanently closed)
Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC) - January 2026 (15.4% of assets pulled after cap raised)
Blackstone Credit (BCRED) - March 2-3, 2026
BlackRock HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND) - March 6, 2026
Morgan Stanley North Haven Private Income Fund - March 11, 2026
Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund (CCLF) - March 11, 2026
Apollo Debt Solutions BDC - March 23, 2026
Ares Strategic Income Fund (ASIF) - March 24, 2026
FCC Bans Foreign-Made Consumer Routers, Netgear Pops
The Federal Communications Commission dropped a bombshell yesterday, banning all new foreign consumer routers from receiving FCC authorization for sale in the U.S., citing national security threats from China-linked hacking groups. The order, which stems from a Trump administration national security determination issued on March 20, specifically referenced the Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon, and Flax Typhoon cyberattacks that exploited vulnerabilities in foreign-made routers to target U.S. infrastructure.
Chinese manufacturers currently command about 60% of the U.S. home router market, which gives you a sense of how disruptive this could be. The ban applies to any new router models that are not designed, developed, and manufactured in the U.S., though existing routers already on shelves or in homes are unaffected. Manufacturers can apply for conditional exemptions through the Department of War or Homeland Security, but they'll need to present a plan for establishing U.S.-based production, in the near future.
Netgear loved this as shares surged 12%. Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg noted the company is "well positioned" since it doesn't manufacture in China and its transparent, non-adversarial supply chain makes conditional approval likely. It should be noted that the FCC didn't provide evidence that U.S.-made routers are inherently more secure, and the Salt Typhoon attacks actually exploited vulnerabilities in routers made by American networking giant Cisco. So this may only be the first step of many implemented by the government to protect our internet infrastructure.
Estee Lauder and Puig Eye a $40 Billion Beauty Mega-Merger
Completely switching topics, Estee Lauder confirmed Monday that it's in discussions with Spanish beauty group Puig regarding a merger, potentially creating a $40 billion luxury beauty powerhouse. Puig's shares jumped as much as 15% on Tuesday in Madrid, while Estee Lauder's stock sank roughly 9.5% as investors processed the implications.
The logic on paper makes sense. The combined entity would bring together Tom Ford, Le Labo, and Jo Malone from Estee Lauder's side with Puig's Jean Paul Gaultier, Byredo, Carolina Herrera, and Charlotte Tilbury, creating one of the most formidable fragrance portfolios in existence. It would boost Estee Lauder's global premium fragrance market share from 6% to 15%, just a tick behind L'Oreal's 16%. That's particularly relevant given L'Oreal recently acquired Kering's beauty division for $4.7 billion.
But the market's reaction tells a different story. The company has been grappling with three consecutive years of declining sales, its shares are down 24% year-to-date, and it's in the middle of a turnaround plan called "Beauty Reimagined" that includes workforce reductions. "We foresee difficulties arising from the scale of the deal and its capability to divert management's focus during a crucial turnaround phase," Morningstar analyst Dan Su told Reuters. JPMorgan analysts added that the deal could require $6 billion in new debt financing, pushing Estee Lauder's leverage to around 4.3 times. As a reminder this is all just talks, and no formal agreement has been reached as they are still in the early stages of discussions.
Costco Launches a Celsius Killer, and the Market Noticed
In the category of "things that can ruin your stock price overnight," Costco has started selling a Kirkland Signature sparkling energy drink that looks, tastes, and is formulated a lot like Celsius, at less than half the price. A 24-pack of the Kirkland version runs $16.99, or about $0.70 per can while a comparable 24-pack of Celsius is around $38, or $1.58 per can... Celsius Holdings shares fell about 7% off the news. The sting is particularly sharp because Costco has been one of Celsius's key retail partners. Now that partner is selling what amounts to a house-brand clone on the same shelves for less than half the money.
Stifel acknowledged the launch was likely the cause of the stock's recent weakness but maintained its Buy rating, arguing it doesn't expect a "meaningful impact to sales" long-term. There have been many cheaper energy drinks on the market for a long time, and Celsius has remained a top brand name regardless. Most analysts remain bullish: 18 of 22 covering the stock rate it Buy or higher, with an average price target of $68, representing over 80% upside from current levels.
Looking to the Data
A few economic releases dropped today that are worth a quick look.
The ADP NER Pulse for the week ending March 7 showed U.S. private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week over the trailing four weeks, a slight uptick from 9,000 the prior week. For context, February's full monthly ADP report showed 63,000 private sector jobs added, the strongest since November 2025, per ADP. Construction and education/health services led the gains, while professional and business services shed 30,000 positions. Pay growth for job-stayers held steady at 4.5% year-over-year.
On crude, the most recent API data for the week ending March 13 showed U.S. crude oil inventories rising by 6.6 million barrels, the largest build in three weeks and a sharp reversal from the prior week's 1.7 million barrel drawdown. Analysts had expected a decrease of 600,000 barrels, so this was a significant surprise to the upside. Gasoline inventories, on the other hand, fell by 4.56 million barrels, the biggest drawdown since late October and the fifth straight weekly decline.
What to Watch
This is one of those weeks where the macro backdrop is doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Iran peace plan, if it gains any traction, could meaningfully shift energy markets, though the chasm between the demands and what Tehran is likely to accept remains enormous. Private credit redemptions bear monitoring for any signs of contagion beyond these initial names. And if you're in the market for a new Wi-Fi router, maybe don't wait too long.
Earnings
The video game retailer GameStop beat profit expectations but fell short on sales, posting EPS of $0.49 versus $0.37 expected, while revenue came in at $1.1 billion, missing the $1.47 billion forecast.
The homebuilder KB Home narrowly missed estimates on both lines, reporting EPS of $0.52 compared with $0.55 forecast and revenue of $1.08 billion against expectations of $1.09 billion.
Tomorrow we will hear from PDD Holdings, Cintas, Paychex, and Chewy.
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